Read our NRL expert tips and analysis for every game of the 2025 premiership season with Betfair’s NRL analyst. Includes game summaries, predictions, tips and best Back and Lay bets for every round. NRL tips for the upcoming round are online now!
PREMIERSHIP
Betting Strategy
BACK: (PREMIERSHIP) Melbourne @ $3.20+
The Storm will open this season as favourites and it is a label that is well deserved. Melbourne have done a fantastic job building their roster through both player development and astute purchasing. The addition of Stefano Utoikamanu is a major addition fulfilling an important need while the emergence of Tyran Wishart, Jack Howarth and Sua Fa'alogo have given the Storm a deep and threatening roster. This looks the year they could really end Penrith's reign.
BACK: (PREMIERSHIP) Manly @ $13+
The Sea Eagles are the only team outside of the top two with the upside to be able to win it all. They rolled both Melbourne and Penrith last year and with Tom Trbojevic they can beat any team on their day. Health and coaching are issues but Manly have top four talent and can go a long way in 2025.
BACK: (PREMIERSHIP) Dolphins @ $26+
The Dolphins are highly unlikely to win it all this season but are an excellent back-to-lay play. They are huge overs, a team that is the most underrated in premiership betting this year. They have one of the best packs in the competition and with an outstanding three-quarter line and a super easy draw, they are likely to shorten right up as the season progresses.
LAY: (PREMIERSHIP) Brisbane @ $15-
Brisbane are ridiculous unders and they are about half the quote they should be. This team lacks depth, is aging in the key positions, is starting some very average players and has a coach that is winning at just over 35% in his last six seasons.
LAY: (PREMIERSHIP) North Queensland @ $81-
The Cowboys are far more likely to miss the eight than make it. They have lost a lot of talent, two players are already out for the season and there is a major concern at halfback.
MINOR PREMIERSHIP
Betting Strategy
BACK: (MINOR PREMIERSHIP) Melbourne @ $2.40+
Melbourne are the only team you want to be with in this market. The Storm are one of the two best teams in the premiership and have a usual floor of around 16 wins. They have won five minor premierships across the last 11 seasons. Penrith likely face more challenges this year and have showed little concern about missing out on it, resting players last year rather than pursue top place on the ladder.
LAY (MINOR PREMIERSHIP) Brisbane @ $19-
Brisbane are such severe unders this year in every market that they are a lay for the minor premiership too. Their floor is far lower than their ceiling is high. The Broncos will more than likely be fighting for a Top 8 berth than duking it out for the minor premiership.
TOP 4
Betting Strategy
LAY ( TOP 4) Brisbane @ <$2.80
Bookies have penned the Broncos in as the next most likely but they are severely overrated this season. While they have some elite top-end talent, their roster falls away very quickly and Michael Maguire is 47-87 in his last six seasons as an NRL coach without a single finals appearance. Lay, lay, lay again.
BACK (TOP 4) Cronulla at $2.10+
The best bet is to be with the Sharks to shine again. While they have not been blessed with the soft draw they have had the last two seasons, they have two Top 4 finishes and a sixth-placing under Craig Fitzgibbon in three seasons. Craig Fitzgibbon is a big believer in continuity and the Sharks have much the same roster with the addition of the premier prop in the game Addin Fonua-Blake. It is hard to envisage them dropping away significantly.
BACK (TOP 4) Manly at $2.70+
Manly are a team that offers huge variance but at their best are probably the only other team that can run with the Storm or Panthers over 80 minutes. Their season swings on the health of Tom Trbojevic but this team has an elite backline. The pack will need to stand up and Anthony Seibold will need to show some discipline but this is a team that can elevate to the Top 4.
BACK (TOP 4) Dolphins at $4.25+
The Dolphins have been majorly mispriced by the market. They are building extremely nicely with a forward pack that matches any in the NRL and a dangerous backline. If the halves offer anything decent then the Dolphins should be playing finals football. With a soft draw, the Dolphins have the talent to claim fourth spot.
TOP 8
Betting Strategy
Lay (TOP 8) Brisbane @ $1.60-
As per the reasons above, the Broncos are a huge lay. This is a team that faces a difficult draw and things can really go south for them with a roster that lacks depth.
Lay (TOP 8) North Queensland @ < $2.50
The Cowboys are the other team worth laying. North Queensland are genuine wooden spoon contenders this season. They have lost a crazy amount of talent and have no clarity around who will wear the No.7. The drums are beating that players are not happy with the coach. Reece Robson is leaving. They are worth taking on.
Back (TOP 8) South Sydney @ $1.70+
Souths are also a strong bet to make the Top 8. Last year was a complete debacle for the Rabbitohs, who became the most injured team in the last decade as well as going through a coaching change. Getting Wayne Bennett though is immense and his team should have few problems returning to the Top 8 with a roster full of so much ability.
Back (TOP 8) Dolphins @ $1.80+
The Dolphins were a recommended play for the Top 4 but the best play with them is to finish inside the Top 8. They were a full win shy of their true win number and have improved their roster this year not only with the recruits but with Tom Gllbert and likely Tom Flegler returning from serious long-term injuries. The price about them to make the Top 8 is extraordinary.
MOST LOSSES
The most losses market for the 2025 season is wide open with seven teams in single figures. The Dolphins are remarkably tied for favouritism with the Raiders and Dragons with three-time defending champions the Wests Tigers around the $9 quote.
Happy to avoid being with most of the single digit teams. The Raiders have won at least 10 games in each season for a decade. The Warriors project to be significantly better despite their outs. The Tigers have recruited as well as any team. The Knights and Titans are probably strong enough not to run last, all things being equal.
The two teams to play in this market are the Eels and Cowboys, both at double digits.
Betting Strategy
Back (MOST LOSSES) Parramatta @ $9+
Parramatta are a team that looks as shaky as any in the NRL. Jason Ryles is a highly risky proposition as a head coach. Isaiah Iongi has played just a single game of first grade and spent a lot of time in NSW Cup. Dylan Brown looks like he is going to try to force his way out. The hooking situation is a debacle. The Eels were tied for fewest wins last year and will be right in the throes again, particularly if Mitchell Moses is reinjured.
Back (MOST LOSSES) North Queensland @ $11+
North Queensland look primed for a major collapse this year. The Cowboys are thin across the paddock and were huge overachievers last year. They also got a lot of breaks last year with no team healthier throughout the spine. The Cowboys project as a team that can completely fall apart if things go wrong.
Lay (MOST LOSSES) Dolphins <$13
The Dolphins being near favouritism is completely wrong. They are legitimate finals contenders. Their position in most markets is miles off. The lay in this market is very safe.
Top Queensland Team
Betting Strategy
Back (TOP QLD TEAM) Dolphins @ $3.25+
This market is completely mispriced with the market still miles off despite the Broncos slight drift and the big firm for the Dolphins. The keenness for the Broncos in the market is so misguided and creates so many betting opportunities and this is one of the better ones. The Dolphins are the outsider of the field but the only Queensland team with any notable upside. Confidence is high that the Dolphins will make the Top 8 while the same cannot be said about the other three teams from north of the Tweed.
Lay (TOP QLD TEAM) Brisbane & $2.25-
This market is completely mispriced with the market still miles off despite the Broncos slight drift and the big firm for the Dolphins. The keenness for the Broncos in the market is so misguided and creates so many betting opportunities and this is one of the better ones. The Dolphins are the outsider of the field but the only Queensland team with any notable upside. Confidence is high that the Dolphins will make the Top 8 while the same cannot be said about the other three teams from north of the Tweed.
TOP NSW TEAM
Betting Strategy
Back (TOP NSW TEAM) Penrith @ $2+
Unlike the Queensland market, the bones of the Top NSW team market is generally in the right shape with Penrith favoured ahead of the Sharks, Sea Eagles and Bulldogs. The real value in the market does seem to centre on Penrith. The Panthers may face some more significant challenges in 2025 but they have won at least 17 games for five straight years and are clearly amongst the two best teams. They are overs to finish as the top NSW team.
National Rugby League – NRL Tips and Predictions
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