Read our NRL expert tips and analysis for every game of the 2024 premiership season with Betfair’s NRL analyst. Includes game summaries, predictions, tips and best Back and Lay bets for every round. NRL tips for the upcoming round are online now!
Penrith v Melbourne
Betting Strategy
BACK PENRITH -5.5 @ $1.65 or better
A top-of-the-table clash is an outstanding way to kick off Round 24 and that is what we have when the Panthers host the Storm. Melbourne may be top of the table but the Panthers are favoured here and deservedly so. The Storm have been very poor the last two weeks, looking extremely unprofessional, particularly when deep on the attack. This is a nice spot for the Panthers, who have covered 12 of 15 off conceding 20 or more and 10 of 13 when home favoured by single digits. The Storm have covered just seven of 19.
Manly v New Zealand
Betting Strategy
BACK OVER 53.5 @ $1.75 or better
Expected a point scoring frenzy when the Sea Eagles host the Warriors on Friday night. These two have a long history of high scoring affairs with 13 of the last 15 meetings between the two teams. Six of the last seven have hit 44-plus points. The over is 37-21 when Manly are off scoring 20 or more and 10-5 when they are double digit favourites. The over is 15-3 when the Warriors are off scoring 28-plus points.
Sydney Roosters v Parramatta
Betting Strategy
BACK PARRAMATTA +16.5 @ $1.80 or better
Parramatta are far from the most reliable proposition but after two admirable performances against Melbourne and Penrith, they can step up against a Roosters team that does not put teams to the sword. The Roosters have dominated this matchup, winning nine of 11 and covering eight of those, but they have covered just one of seven when favoured by 16-plus. Teams off scoring 18 or more against Penrith are 20-5 against the spread the following week and the Eels have covered five of seven getting more than two converted tries so look the play.
Canterbury v Dolphins
Betting Strategy
BACK DOLPHINS +6.5 @ $1.80 or better
The Bulldogs claimed the only meeting between these two teams last year but it was notable that they won as an outsider and the Dolphins can do similar in this one. The Bulldogs are the better team but this game is being played in Bundaberg and this is a huge letdown spot for a tired Canterbury side. The Dogs are 0-6 against the spread when favoured by six or more. The Dolphins have covered eight of 11 off scoring 28-plus.
North Queensland v Canberra
Betting Strategy
BACK CANBERRA +6.5 @ $1.70 or better
Todd Payten is clearly frustrated as the Cowboys coach, dropping Chad Townsend. The Cowboys have won five straight against the Raiders but three of those have been decided by a single score. They have covered just two of 12 at home.
LAY NORTH QUEENSLAND @ $1.65 or shorter
North Queensland have talent but are far too flighty to be trusted. The Raiders are in a rare good spot here. They have covered nine straight off conceding 40 points and have covered five of six interstate.
Wests Tigers v South Sydney
Betting Strategy
BACK SOUTH SYDNEY -5.5 @ $1.75 or better
Two bottom four teams squaring off in the final four weeks should not be an overly compelling affair but this one does have appeal with both teams trying to find a little something to build some momentum heading into 2025. The Tigers are at home but have won just one of 11 at Campbelltown across the last four season and are 14-23 against the spread when an underdog of less than 10 points. Souths have showed some gumption the last two weeks and they are 41-25 against the number off conceding 30-plus.
St George Illawarra v Gold Coast
Betting Strategy
BACK GOLD COAST +6.5 @ $1.70 or shorter
The Titans have shown some propensity to throw up a stinker but after a slow start to the year, they have been a fairly reliable proposition. The Titans have covered 10 of 11 getting a start of a try while teams off a loss of 40 or more cover at 65%. The Dragons have lost some key starters including biter Kyle Flanagan. The value is with the Gold Coast.
Cronulla v Newcastle
Betting Strategy
BACK CRONULLA -7.5 at $1.80 or better
Teig Wilton remains out for the Sharks but they look an excellent bet against a Knights team that is desperate to win. Teams off a defensive shutout cover at 64% the last four years. The Sharks have covered 11 of 16 at home off scoring 30-plus and have covered four of five against the Knights. Cronulla can run rampant again.
NRL SEASON PREVIEW TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
Betting Strategy
BACK: Penrith Panthers Premiership at $3.00+
This is best back for Premiership. Penrith are in rarefied air here as they look to become the first team since the famous St George team that won 11 straight to win four premierships on the trot. There is certainly no reason they cannot. While they have lost Stephen Crichton and some solid backups, this Panthers team that has lost just 16 games across the last four years and brings into the season the most formidable roster. They sit at least a tier above any other team and no team can lift for September football like the Panthers. They are almost certain to finish in the Top 4 with their 2-5 record in close games suggesting they will improve on their regular season win total, setting them up for the best possible September run.
BACK: Sydney Roosters Premiership at $7.00+
This is best value for the Premiership. The only team with a roster anywhere near as stocked with talent to the Panthers is Trent Robinson's Sydney Roosters. There remain some questions on the backline and the team's ability to score points but there is no more formidable or deeper pack in the premiership this year than that of the Tricolours. The Roosters recruited magnificently, bringing in Dom Young and Spencer Leniu, and they are as well coached as any in the premiership. The Chooks are all in for 2024.
LAY: Brisbane Premiership at $7.00 or shorter
Best lay for the NRL Premiership. The list of losing Grand Finalists to return and win a premiership has been exceptionally short in the NRL Era: Melbourne have achieved the feat three times, most recently in 2017, and Penrith, when they won the first of their titles. Most suffer from a shocking hangover. Parramatta missed the finals after losing the 2022 Grand Final. Brisbane severely overachieved last last year, they have lost key figures Herbie Farnworth, Tom Flegler and Kurt Capewell and are unlikely to have the dream injury run they enjoyed last year.
BACK: Melbourne Storm Top 4 at $2.20+
Best back top 4 market. Melbourne has really been undervalued this season. While they are a club with no depth, they have an outstanding spine (arguably best in the premiership) and a very good starting 13. They made the Top 4 last year, a place they have finished in 11 of the last 13 years. Melbourne are not the dominant force they were only a few years back but they remain an elite team.
BACK: Cronulla Sharks Top 4 at $3.00+
Best value top 4 market. Cronulla's draw is the best in the NRL and is so good that the difference between the number of total wins from last year they face and the second team is the same as that between the second easiest and toughest draws. It is a historically easy draw and the Sharks with their roster and starting base will be right in the mix for a Top 4 berth.
LAY: Brisbane Broncos Top 4 at $2.80 or shorter
Best lay top 4 market. Brisbane are a team to be against this year. They overshot their real win tally by nearly two full victories and they went 4-2 in close games so last season's finishing spot was overinflated. With so many losses and a likely regression in injury luck, it would not shock to see the Broncos fall out of the Top 4.
BACK: Cronulla Sharks Top 8 at $1.50+
Top 8 best back. Cronulla are the most undervalued team in the premiership this year and are far more likely to finish inside the Top 4 than they are to miss finals. The Sharks have a stable team with no changes to their best 13 but more importantly they have been blessed with the kindest of draws, where they are the only team in the competition to play teams from last year's Top 8 nine times. Cronulla are not missing the finals this year with even a below-average injury toll.
BACK: Redcliffe Dolphins Top 8 at $2.25+
Top 8 best value. Wayne Bennett has done a magnificent job building the Dolphins into a force that will be contending for a finals berth in just their second season. They have recruited magnificently, bringing in Tom Flegler to an already tough back and Herbie Farnworth and Jake Averillo to massively upgrade the club at the centre position. They can build momentum with a kind early season draw. Huge overs.
LAY: Newcastle Knights Top 8 at $2.50 or shorter
Best lay top 8. Newcastle managed to get hot over the backend of last season to make the finals but they are not a team that should return to the finals. They have lost top tryscorer Dominic Young. Their halves situation is a mess. They had a great run with injuries last year. This just seems like a run built on a very fragile and unsustainable base.
National Rugby League – NRL Tips and Predictions
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