Pakenham Cup day with a strong betting card also featuring the Supernova.

It looks a great card at Pakenham this week after a testing day at Ballarat last Saturday where the shifty track brought plenty undone.

This week should play beautifully though and there looks to be a handful of good bets, none more so than Biancelli in Race 4.

I was keen to be with the mare first up at Cranbourne and she ran a cracker, settling perhaps a length further back than anticipated and just having too much to do late, ripping home in the fastest final 600m of the meeting.

The commentary pre-race was that she'd improve for the run, and having run to a RAS rating of 103 – a clear new peak for her, she looks very well placed given she's having just her fifth start.

There are a few here that have more than hit their mark and it should set up nicely for Biancelli who can settle just off the good speed and prove too sharp late.

The Cup looks a good betting race and I'd be tempted to stick with Alenquer at double figures. His past few have been good, sitting close to a strong pace in the Zipping Classic last time and battling away well for fourth.

Two of the main dangers here are a good chance of being in the last few in running and he should be able to land in a handy spot. Better for that run at 2400m last time, he's heading the right way and while his overseas form is probably off the table, a winning rating isn't.

The other bet I'm keen to have is Big Swinger in the last. I've been a bit hesitant on him especially given he started $2.90 first up at Flemington as the form out of his flashy looking races has been awful.

That said, he ran well fresh and was good again in the Testa Rossa behind two top horses in Here To Shock and Persian Spirit.

He was a distant third there but it was a solid effort and I think he just peaked late after some good mid-race sectionals.

Back to 1200m on his home track here, which saw him run enormous late splits to win by three lengths (which saw him over bet in strong races since), he finds the right race and 7/2 looks a good bet.

The Melbourne Mail

Bet of the day: Race 4 #7 Biancelli at $4.40

Also backing: Race 10 #1 Big Swinger at $4.40

Pakenham Cup: #2 Alenquer at $17.00