A bumper, two-day edition of this week’s Melbourne Mail.

We first head to Moonee Valley on Friday for Manikato Stakes night before backing up into Sandown on Grand Final day.

Keen to bet across both cards, although I think the market in the Manikato itself isn't far off, and anyone saying they've got a huge edge probably hasn't priced the race properly.

Tactics will be key on Lady Shenandoah. If she's taken back to last her task becomes much harder and she's a horrible bet at $2.30. In that scenario, I think Baraqiel and Alabama Lass fight out the finish with Lady Shenandoah flashing late but needing a new career peak to do so.

In the Stutt Stakes, I've marked Vinrock $1.80 and the $1.90 (and hopefully better) around is a bet I'll be taking, but we won't take the easy way out for the Melbourne Mail faithful.

To find one I think we've got a proper edge on, we roll back to the 955m race where Unflinching seems a very fair price.

One run last time in for the new yard he bolted in one of these, running to an equal career peak of 106 on the RAS ratings, the same rating he ran when winning the final of the series in 2023.

He's built for the short course with sustained speed and the favourite Grand Larceny will need everything to go his way from barrier one. He could have more talent but that could be irrelevant if he's got nowhere to go.

For the each-way play I think La Dorada can be a sharp improver in the Scarborough Stakes. She couldn't make inroads in the Moir Stakes first up but 1000m just isn't her go.

She holds a peak rating of 108 in New Zealand over 1400m which is the highest in this field. We get a huge jockey upgrade with Willo going aboard and out to 1200m looks a huge risk for the favourite Esha.

Over to Sandown on Saturday where King Zephyr in Race 4 looks the best across the weekend.

I backed him first up at Moonee Valley over 1200m but in hindsight it was never going to be ideal for him and he didn't appear all that comfortable. His last 100m once he balanced up was strong and 1400m on the big track here is ideal.

Even his last start weight-adjusted rating is bang on where you need to be to win this, and he can go much better on his form last time in. Marked him in the red and we're getting $2.45.

To complete the Saturday set, I think Race 5 presents a good betting opportunity. Bacash is favourite and I think he's fairly limited. He hasn't really improved his rating in eight career starts, running 95 at start two and only just improving to 99 at his most recent start. Now up to 1400m looks a query and I think there are others that are far better suited.

Fermoy is a well bred colt for the Waller yard who ran a new peak of 105 behind Grand Prairie last time out in Sydney in solid time. He'll have no issue at 1400m and rates highly. The other one I'll save on is Navy Pilot who ripped home off a slow speed in the Poseidon to just miss. He's crying out for ground and while he gives away weight, I think this is winnable. Happy to make him a smaller result.

The Melbourne Mail

Friday
Moonee Valley: Race 3 #2 Unflinching at $6.50

Moonee Valley: Race 5 #1 La Dorada at $10.0

Saturday
Sandown Race 4 #1 King Zephyr at $2.45

Sandown Race 5 #2 Fermoy at $7.50 (save #1 Navy Pilot at $5.00)