A pair of enticing Group One races await us at Caulfield this Saturday.
We're met with a strong ten-race card with numerous betting angles, the first of which may be an obvious one, but one still (as objectively as possible) worth taking.
Angel Capital headlines the market for the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes off a dominant win first up at 1200m and the data backed up the eye to no end.
Racing and Sports rate that 3.8 length win at a mark of 120 and looking at the past ten years of Rupert Clarke winners, that comes out as the equal highest rating posted in the race, tying with Jungle Cat in 2018.
In that time, the mean winning rating is 117 so clearly Angel Capital is already up to winning the race, and that's before factoring in other variables.
He's well weighted with 53.5kg, coming out with the highest last start rating on weight adjusted figures while also boasting the clear best last-start speed figure.
The sectional strength at Moonee Valley said if anything he'd be improving getting to 1400m and if that's the case, it could be a case of times and margins once more.
North of $4 was being shopped early which was rightfully snapped up but having priced the race, I can get him sub- $3 and the current quote still represents great value.
That said, I will be having small bets on Is It Me and Zou Sensation, both of whom have career peaks that are very competitive at the weights and can certainly outperform their price.
For the each-way play we'll roll back to Race 6 where the fillies do battle in the Jim Moloney Stakes.
I'm keen to be against the typical, exposed lead up which was the Atlantic Jewel Stakes at Moonee Valley and instead look to progressive horses through the maidens and midweeks.
Vivid Sun certainly fits that bill having rounded up her rivals at Sandown in good time to win fresh, giving every indication she'd be measuring up to better grade soon.
That said, the market hasn't missed her while I think Lathlain may have plenty to offer at a bigger price.
She only won a Seymour maiden on debut but the late sectionals were very sharp, running a better time figure than Ruska Roma later on the card who is shorter in the market on Saturday.
Tipping she can go right on with it, especially having a better tempo to run at.
The Melbourne Mail
Bet of the day: Race 8 #9 Angel Capital at $3.50
Each-way play: Race 6 #10 Lathlain at $8.50
