Racing returns to Moonee Valley on Saturday with a tricky nine-race card.
How this Moonee Valley track will play is anyone's guess but we'll leave the markets to sort that out and focus on the ratings.
Those ratings will show Mornington Glory as the best horse at the meeting with his 116 effort to win the Moir Stakes low by Group One standard but very high by off-season benchmark 100 standards.
Funnily enough, he'd run to 115 in fast time to win this exact race last year, then going 112 in the Carlyon before his 116 Moir win.
An extended break through injury saw him miss the Autumn however he looks awfully well in here, rated at least four pounds clear of the next rivals and achieved in properly run races against good opposition.
A recent jumpout was nice work and while he may have a bit of improvement to come, I think he sets up much better than the favourite Oak Hill, who similarly likes Moonee Valley however doesn't have heaps of early speed and draws the fence.
I think he ends up last on the rails here in a small field which is a horrible spot to be, even for Blake Shinn. Mornington Glory likely lands the 1-1 from barrier 4 and can use his superior speed to get rolling on the turn.
$3.70 they're betting for a Moir winner in a benchmark race and that seems too good to ignore.
For the each way play we'll duck over to Race 7 where St Lawrence creates interest stepping past a mile for the first time.
He's in his first campaign for the Bedggood yard (who also train Mornington Glory) and I think there have been signs of life the past two starts, getting home well at Caulfield last time when held up for a run.
He's by Redwood so the pedigree is there to suggest this trip will suit and I think he can also take up a much more prominent role from the low draw with less early pressure.
His best ratings have him as one of the horses to beat and I think the double figures is a decent each way bet.
The Melbourne Mail
Bet of the day: Race 4 #1 Mornington Glory at $3.70
Each-way play: Race 7 #6 St Lawrence at $12/3.20
