An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in Saturday's Group 3 $250,000 Richmond Club Hawkesbury Gold Cup (1600m). Note, anticipating a soft track to some degree.
1. Detonator Jack (Ciaron Maher): Super consistent gelding and a superior wet tracker if conditions get a bit testing. Drew gate one in the Doncaster and found himself in the second half. In that blanket finish he was only beaten two lengths so it was a respectable performance. Up 3kg on his easy win in The Gong back in November. Hard to fault and he's one of the major players.
2. El Bodegon (Chris Waller): A couple of months off 1000 days since his last win and it's fair to say this import hasn't lived up to expectation at this stage. This would be the easiest race he's faced for a while, by grade at least, and he'll likely strike some give in the track. That could be significant as all his form has come on soft and heavy ground. That said, he's very much a take on trust commodity.
3. Berkshire Shadow (Ciaron Maher): Import who was Group 1 placed this time last year in the Lockinge over the mile in the UK. He was a $101 chance in the Doncaster and ran something of a cheeky race without having the best of luck, beaten under four lengths at the finish. The outside barrier could be a plus or a minus depending on the conditions come race time, wouldn't be underselling him.
4. Nugget (Ciaron Maher): He's been racing in great style in Group 1 company for the past 12 months and was gallant running fourth in the Doncaster. It's the second year running he's been in the finish of that Randwick mile. Ticked over in a trial since his last start and he's drawn around the middle which looks ideal as things stand. Last win was Boxing Day of 2022 and this is his best chance since then to win one.
5. Attractable (Sara Ryan): Big Dance winner who has raced at weight-for-age in two runs this time in. Couldn't match it with Pride Of Jenni in the All Star Mile and dropped out, missed the Doncaster due to the wet track. Given a solid workout to win a 1200m trial recently and races with blinkers on first time. Likely leads or tracks the leader and is capable of being competitive.
6. Just Folk (Gavin Bedggood): Registered a rare placing on good ground in the Golden Mile at Bendigo which is encouraging if he strikes his preferred soft and heavy tracks. Tends to race on the handy side, and is racing pretty well of late but his chances are tied to the track condition in this field.
7. Bold Mac (Chris Waller): A horse who generally mixes his form and is more than capable of featuring if he's on song. Won the Rowley Mile over this course in 2023 at his only start at Hawkesbury and is back in trip after finding 2000m on a heavy a bit testing. Has the wide gate to contend with and is a place chance.
8. Here To Shock (Ben, Will & Jd Hayes): Last start Group 3 winner at Caulfield a month ago and has since trialled at Bendigo to keep him up to the mark. Generally his best form is close to on top of the ground but his record does show he's won in all conditions. Draws to have every chance and if he's here then he's some hope.
9. Munhamek (Nick Ryan): The horse that gave Damien Oliver the ultimate send off has been unplaced in four runs since that victory in Perth last summer. Drew wide and was never a factor in the Doncaster Prelude and again faces giving them a start. On his best he could show up but doesn't look the right scenario for him.
10. Palmetto (John Sargent): Can be very hit and miss. Resumed with a handy effort in a BM100 before failing in the Ajax and the Doncaster. Beaten four lengths in the latter. Since been back to the trials and won. Notched a couple of big wins last year in The Coast and Five Diamonds Prelude so is capable if things work out for him.
11. Welwal (Chris Waller): Broke through for a win first-up, beating Palmetto, and his two runs since have been honest and a sign he's holding his form. Never a winning chance but ran on into third behind Another Wil in the Doncaster Prelude off a wide gate, which he'll face again this time around. Tends to line up at double figure odds but he's a little more fancied here and is worth including.
12. Alegron (Bjorn Baker): Former Godolphin stayer resuming for new stable and connections. Fitter for two trials and kicking off at a mile gives him some hope of competing but it's almost 600 days since his last win and he'll likely need a bit more ground.
13. New Endeavour (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott ): Hard to line up given his three starts in Australia have been in either very strong races or races not run to suit. Didn't do a bad job off a wide gate in the Doncaster Prelude as he finished midfield and has won another trial since then. UK form is interesting and if he can find it then he could be a surprise packet.
14. Madame Pommery (Chris Waller): Suspect she's lost a bit of interest having failed to beat one home at her last two starts, albeit in Group 1 mares company. Even in her first-up placing she was just holding her ground at best. Last win was the 2022 Thousand Guineas, if there's a positive she's drawn the inside and that should give her options as opposed to from wide alleys of late.
15. Jojo Was A Man (John Thompson): Ran third in the race last year and hasn't raced since a game second in the Rowley Mile on a heavy track after leading. Different preparation for him this time around as he tackles this first-up but off three barrier trials. Rolls forward from the gate and if he is fit enough for a testing mile he's not without a chance.
16. Mount Popa (Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes): Around 770 days since his last success and that was on a heavy 10 at 2000m. Form last time in was ordinary and there's a few too many zeroes in his form too. Yet to win below that trip and has only won once when resuming so there's a few stats to say he's not one of the contenders.
17E. Ausbred Flirt (Brad Widdup): Local who might be a risk at a strong mile and who definitely doesn't want a genuine wet track. She had excuses at Randwick when well supported before proving too strong in a Provincial-Midway Championships Qualifier at Wyong. Had her chance in the Final last time out. Wide gate no help to her and as smart as she is it might be a bit tough.
18E. More Secrets (Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes): Bobs up now and then into a placing as she did in the Guy Walter three runs back. No match in Group 1 mares races since then and she's another closing on 600 days since her last win. Given she does lob into a placing in this sort of race now and then you couldn't completely rule her out.
19E. Baby Rider (Bjorn Baker): Stayer resuming since finishing unplaced in the January Cup after leading. The mile is short of his best and couldn't see him finding the front here first-up at a mile from the outside gate without having to do some work. Prefer him at 2000m and beyond.
20E. Williamsburg (Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou): More than capable of showing up in a race like this on his best form though it's fair to say he hasn't shown a lot of that lately. Best effort in recent times was a narrow defeat in the Festival Stakes in December. In the market and disappointed at Eagle Farm last week. His chances soar on a wet track so if he makes the field and gets those conditions he could surprise.
21E. Rebel Rama (Marc Conners): Game at big odds in the Aspiration Stakes off a six week break then couldn't repeat it in the Epona after racing handy off a wide gate. Trialled since then. She does tend to prefer some give in the track but she'd need to improve.
22E. Ruby Flyer (Brad Widdup): Lightly raced and was a heavy track winner first-up before a solid showing in the Provincial-Midway Final. Backs up after running second at Rosehill last week in a BM78. Did place in the Rowley Mile here back in August so isn't the worst if he does gain a start.
SPEED MAP: Attractable is a natural on pacer and he'll roll forward. Just Folk and Jojo Was A Man are both normally in the mix. Baby Rider has a wide gate and whether he has the pace to take up a forward position at a mile is a query but he does like to lead over further. Doesn't look to be high speed but a big field should generate some tempo.
SELECTIONS:
4 NUGGET
1 Detonator Jack
15 Jojo Was A Man
3 Berkshire Shadow
