We look back at Libertad’s surprise Winterbottom win from a ratings perspective.
Winterbottom Stakes – Libertad (118)
Libertad has run a new peak Racing & Sports rating of 118 to deny Overpass a historical third straight win in the Winterbottom Stakes.
Overpass led at a fairly moderate tempo and had his chance but Libertad simply had the better turn of foot late, however it is difficult to make excuses for Overpass.
The finishing speed percentage was basically bang on par from Parr – it wasn't as if he and Libertad were finishing very fast late and going faster early would've meant he won.
That's still a possibility, as Overpass can certainly run much faster times, but on the day, it appears he just wasn't at his absolute best.
Overpass has run to 117 on the RAS scale having run 119-119-120-119-110 in his others. This was better than his Quokka fifth, but any of his other winning performances would've been good enough to win on Saturday.
As for Libertad, he had the perfect run tracking the speed and going up the inside, his RAS rating of 118 now bettering his prior peak of 116 he'd run winning the Group 2 Victory Stakes (1200m) in Queensland earlier this year.
It's just the fourth time he's run a rating of 110 or better, his fourth in the Group 1 Champions Sprint (1200m) behind Giga Kick coming in at 115 the start prior.
In terms of Winterbottom winners, this sits exactly on the average.
Since the race became a Group 1 in 2011, the mean and median winning RAS rating is 118, which is also the modal rating achieved by Paulele, Takedown and Voodoo Lad.
It's better than a couple of recent local winners in Elite Street and Graceful Girl (116) but behind the likes of Buffering and Hey Doc (122).
Of the others, Rey Magnerio ran to his best of 115 although the sectionals will say he was the run of the race coming from too far back in a dash home.
Jokers Grin was the obvious disappointment, getting keen off the muddling tempo, which he did first up in a near identical time rating, but was still good enough to overcome it.
He's still got a bit to improve upon to be as effective in other scenarios. It'll be interesting who goes to the Gold Rush out of this, because I don't think the tempo of 1400m would suit Jokers Grin off this, and Overpass has to be a query too.
Apparently Rey Magnerio will head that way which is interesting given he's untested beyond 1200m as well, but he'll have to be a leading chance off this run.
While perhaps not quite as talented, it could set up very well for Rope Them In who has now gone 111-110-111 in three runs this time in. He can go slightly better at 1400m and that might be enough.