The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is the highlight of the European calendar for middle distance horses, crowning the best of all age groups over 1m4f. After a thrilling Trials Day at Longchamp, the betting market has been thrown into disarray…
France retains a strong hand
With none of the three 'Arc' trials going the way of British or Irish contenders, France retains a strong hand for their feature race, which has been won by a domestically-trained horse four times in the last six years. Both Aventure (Prix Vermeille) and Cualificar (Prix Niel) are anticipated to return to Longchamp for the first weekend in October and will not be phased by differing conditions, with Aventure's jockey Maxime Guyon indicating that the filly would be equally capable of a big performance if the ground came up soft. Not to be forgotten, fellow Wertheimer-owned Sosie produced a big effort in the Prix Foy when second and should be a major player for the 'Arc', having finished fourth in last year's renewal.
Leading fillies have other options
It was a busy weekend for possible 'Arc' candidates and surprisingly, pre-weekend favourite Kalpana and the previously consistent Whirl both disappointed in their respective trials. Whilst Kalpana's trainer Andrew Balding was adamant the four-year-old would come forward after her second behind Giavaletto in the Group 3 September Stakes at Kempton Park, a possible alternative on British Champions Day was touted instead of Longchamp. Aidan O'Brien's Whirl may have run too poorly to be true when down the field in the Prix Vermeille, but her performance suggested that connections may not be keen to supplement with other options available.
First Japanese 'Arc' winner an increasing possibility
The result of the Prix Foy, going the way of Japanese-trained Byzantine Dream, may have been a surprise for some but it simply strengthened the confidence of the nation who have brought over a significant team for this year's 'Arc'. Byzantine Dream was impressive in his own right, defeating the consistent and top-class Sosie, but vibes from the Japanese camp suggest that Croix Du Nord is the best of the contingent. Winner of the Japanese Derby on his last outing in June, the three-year-old son of Kitasan Black has been working well in Chantilly and shortened for the 'Arc' in all betting markets, despite not setting a foot on the track.
Ground remains key
The likely ground conditions for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe remain key, with the leading contenders splitting into two main camps – those who are looking for autumn soft ground and those who are hoping the dry conditions will continue. The long-range forecast suggest no major wet spell is anticipated, which will suit horses like Byzantine Dream, Minnie Hauk and Croix Du Nord.
