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Ashburton Picks - Friday, 11 October

DOUBLE O' SEVEN winning the MCCREA PAINTERS DECORATORS ASHBURTON CUP
DOUBLE O' SEVEN winning the MCCREA PAINTERS DECORATORS ASHBURTON CUP Picture: Race Images South

Ashburton Race 1
1 Full Moon Fever

Full Moon Fever has been very good in his two runs for Terri Rae in the South Island. He has good early toe which should see him lead or trail here from the inside gate. The step up to 1400m doesn't look to be a negative now that he has two runs under his belt. Aussie jockey Liam Riordan can make his first ride a winning one in this.

Ashburton Race 2
3 Rubicon Reigns

Rubicon Reigns has trialled well for his return, given a strong hit-out and finishing a head behind impressive subsequent winner, El Viento. He can be a bit hit and miss from the gates, if he was to hit I think he can settle just off the likes of Brancaster Bomber and Sunset Express early. If he is able to reproduce something close to the form when clearing maiden company last campaign, he would take plenty of beating here.

Ashburton Race 3
2 Third Decree

Third Decree is a talented mare who is due for some better luck in running, having been posted wide and working in each of her two runs this time in. The choppy Soft7 track wasn't to her liking last start and she should get more favourable conditions here. She's the class horse of this field and with even luck in running should be winning for mine.

Ashburton Race 4
1 Lippy

I was with Lippy at longer odds last start and he ran well without much luck in the straight. He's drawn to get a quiet run on the fence off what looks to be an even tempo on paper. While the price isn't quite as appealing as last start, I still think he is slight overs at the $9.50 at publish and we may get better on raceday. Not a high confidence betting race but happy to side with Lippy again.

Ashburton Race 5
11 Chapinteel

Chapinteel was very unlucky copping interference at multiple stages in her resuming run and still managed to find the line well afterwards. While she had looked very plain at the trials leading into her first-up run it is worth noting that she was backed heavily on raceday. The question mark for mine is the significant jump up to 2200m second-up, however, the way she raced first-up suggests further may suit.

Ashburton Race 6
7 Miss Layla

Miss Layla was a pass mark first-up, where she was strongly backed and was probably just unsuited by the fast tempo over 1400m for her resuming run. While I expect this to be a fastly run 1600m, Miss Layla now has a run under her belt and more than likely finds herself on a slightly softer surface than the Good3 first-up. She looks a very good 1×3 each way play for mine.

Ashburton Race 7
1 Vindicator

Vindicator resumes here from an inside draw and maps to get a very economical run off a genuine tempo. He has the ability to sprint sharply off a strong tempo, which is exactly the setup he'll get here. Provided he isn't too slowly away from the inside draw and finds clear air, he could prove hard to stop.

Ashburton Race 8
6 Dream Of The Moon
Tip of The Day

Dream Of The Moon was brave running 2nd in the Canterbury Belle Stakes first-up, in what looks to be the benchmark form race for this contest. Dream Of The Moon ranged up like she was going to run on by first-up, however she peaked on her run on the choppy Soft7 track. Now back on a firmer surface with a run under her belt, the 1400m looks ideal for her. She'll get back off what looks a strong speed but I think she can finish over the top of them. Best bet.

Ashburton Race 9
18 Say Satono

Say Satono is third-up for this coming into this race off the back of a disappointing run last start. Her chances in this race will be dictated by tempo, as she'll be near enough to last from the wide draw (13). Tempo aside, Say Satono would need to improve significantly off her last run, I'm trusting that a firmer track and race fitness will be the key to seeing the necessary improvement here.


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