bet365 Sydney Specials: Rosehill- Saturday 7th of October 2023

No Group 1 action but plenty of quality racing and plenty of good betting races.

Diving straight in with the best of the day which could go to a couple of races but I think Magic Time will take a power of beating in Race 9.

She's a very good mare for Grahame Begg and I thought she made a very nice return behind Asfoora at Caulfield, covering ground and working home well for fifth, beaten a tick over two lengths.

She ran the second fastest 400-200m split of the meeting there and probably just lacked a little bit of fitness late to really get into the finish but it looks an ideal platform and she's had a nice little tick over jump out win between runs.

Rated 107 there which is only one pound off her peak, which came when beating Parisal with a big win in the Group 3 P J Bell Stakes (1200m) at Randwick. I'd be surprised if she wasn't elevating off that, and while she meets an in form Parisal again here, I feel as if that mare might've hit her mark now despite two very good runs this time in.

My main query is the slightly sticky draw but none are riding better than Nash in Sydney at the moment and if he can slot her in midfield I think she'll be too strong late and $3.80 with bet365 seems fair.

For the best value I'm going to the feature on the card, Race 7 which is the Group 2 Hill Stakes (1900m) and Numerian just looks well over the odds at a huge $19 with bet365 leading the market. 

I think the market has him the price he is because he's first up but that's not an issue whatsoever if you look at his fresh ratings.

Officially his past three first up ratings read 112-115-112 but he was also six weeks between runs leading into the Group 1 Doomben Cup (2000m) in May and ran to 117, splitting Huetor and Kovalica and also ran 117 when a month between runs in the Group 1 Australian Cup (2000m) when splitting Cascadian and Pounding.

Few horses in this field can run to that sort of level and the ones that are, aren't going as well as they could. Montefilia was better last time but the jury is still out on her for mine although Nash on from an inside draw helps. Numerian can roll forward and sit in the first two and he's just a crazy price at $18.

bet365 Sydney Specials

Bet of the day: Race 9 #5 Magic Time @ $3.80 with bet365*
Each-way play: Race 7 #1 Numerian @ $19.00 & 4.40 with bet365*

*Odds correct at 12:00pm on 5/10/23

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