NEXT UP

No stakes racing this Saturday although the pair of open class events are competitive affairs, and the latter of those, Race 9, is where I think the best betting opportunity of the day lies

An open race with the TABtouch market headed by Tamerlane at $4.20 who is hard to knock and does things the right way, but I think Democracy Manifest is the one weighted to win and is perhaps a bit big off his last start flop.

Admittedly he was very poor there as a $2.60 favourite but perhaps he isn't quite as adept on heavy ground as originally thought. His first up win was excellent, equalling his peak of 106 with Timeform.

The other time he ran to 106 was over the Randwick 7 f and for all the good form Tamerlane is his peak of 109 (also at the Randwick 7 f) doesn't quite come out on top considering he's giving Democracy Manifest 7lbs here.

Expecting Democracy Manifest to bounce back strongly from a low draw out to 7 f and overhaul Tamerlane late and I have him marked favourite to do so.

For the value play of the day, we roll back to Race 6 where both Estadio Mestalla and Biscayne Bay present as good betting opportunities.

Estadio Mestalla has only had the seven starts and won three, running on strongly first up behind subsequent Coast winner Palmetto before an even effort last start. Too far back there from a wide gate, his best figures are every bit as good with bits that say he's even better than Unspoken and 1 1⁄4 m third up from a lovely draw should see the best of him.

Biscayne Bay also has Unspoken form, starting $10 to his $4.40 when they met two back and beating him home, albeit he was unlucky. She in turn had no luck last start at Gosford and now meets him 7lbs better from an ideal draw. It's no surprise to see TABtouch punters trim her up early into $17.

SYDNEY SPECIALS (Odds courtesy of TABtouch)

Bet of the day: Race 9 #14 Democracy Manifest @ $4.40 with TABtouch

Value plays: Race 6 #4 Estadio Mestalla @ $6 & Biscayne Bay @ $17 with TABtouch

*odds correct at 3:15pm 25/05/23

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