Sydney Specials: Rosehill- Saturday 20th of May 2023

Back to town this week at Rosehill with one of the most open cards of racing in recent history.

The country feature meetings post-carnival give the illusion of the better racing continuing, but that illusion has been well and truly shattered this weekend as we dive into the off-season in Sydney.

One race at listed level where Waller's numbers take up a third of the field, with the last three races throwing up $5.5, $6 and $7.5 favourites. Good luck to those taking a quaddie.

Nevertheless, one would be rewarded handsomely for finding a winner and for that winner we look to Race 8, where I have Substantial marked as a narrow favourite in one of the aforementioned lotteries.

His Australian debut over 7 f was encouraging, running to 96 behind Tamerlane and it's easy to forgive his second up run, dropping back to 6 f on wet ground clearly unsuitable. He ran right up to his best UK form at Eagle Farm, cracking the 100 mark behind Antino and now out to 7 1⁄2 f from a relatively soft gate, I think he can run to at least that mark again.

Democracy Manifest comfortably beat him over 6 f when they met but was poor last start and draws the carpark here so will get a long way back. Substantial should be able to settle in the first six and looks well placed to score his first Australian win.

The value play is another import, this time just having her second run in Australia. Back to Race 6 where I think Peshmerga can outrun her 16-1 quote having stuck on quite well at the track and trip first up.

She ran to 97 with Timeform there which is a new peak but she's a listed winning filly in Germany who should strip a fair bit fitter with a firmer surface potentially only aiding her cause.

In a race with little tempo again here she can lead if she wants with the more favoured runners likely to be worse than midfield. If Rediener can settle closer he's comfortably the one to beat but that's no guarantee and I think Peshmerga can give a better sight than her early price would suggest.


Bet of the day: Race 8 - #12 Substantial @ $5.50

Each-way play: Race 6 - #3 Peshmerga @ $18/4.4

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