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The Melbourne Mail: Sandown - 10th December 2022

A big 2023 lies ahead for Sensational Sandown, covering for Caulfield in her absence, and the work starts on Saturday as Sandown provides the backdrop to a good meeting on a great weekend of thoroughbred racing.

 

It would be fair to say that, with the rich Gold Rush to the west, the even richer Ingham to the east, and, richest of all, the HKIR to the north, Sandown is supplementary rather than primary this weekend but it does a fine job of supplementing with more than it's share of interesting runners and races.  

Race seven probably can't claim to be one of the more interesting races, or even a particularly good race, but it does have a betting angle or two and one that appeals to us here at Melbourne Mail HQ. 

Right You Are fronts up for this rather run-of-the-mill contest off an ordinary show at Ballarat but one that could be worth taking lightly on further inspection. It came off three building runs which had made it easy to forecast a peak at Ballarat - the market certainly went some way to doing that by sending him around as a 7/4 favourite. Alas, those building runs came off steady tempos and Ballarat was anything but. 

It may simply have come as a shock to the system and (written in stern Nassim Taleb voice) stressors can bring about positive responses.

A positive response to that strongly-run race can see Right You Are producing the peak fancied last time this time and it is a peak that will go a long way towards winning this. A lot further than $6.00 in early markets implies. 

Our each-way bet plays a similar angle with Cardigan Queen turning up in race six off a frankly poor show at Cranbourne. 

Blinkers went on and she switched off at Cranbourne, never looking comfortable and ultimately throwing up her second bad one from her past three. 

That doesn't bode well but she does have a string of good ratings for this in the book and her Geelong run fresh, when never put in a spot to threaten but shaping with promise, said she retains the talent that brought those good ratings about.

Cardigan Queen could just as easily throw up another plain one, but better to know what you don't know then to walk in blinded by confidence. 12/1 is a bet with our eyes wide open. 

 

THE MELBOURNE MAIL 

Bet Of The Day: Race 7 #5 Right You Are @ $6.00

Each Way Play: Race 6 #6 Cardigan Queen @ $13.00


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