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The Cranbourne Mail - Cup Day 12th November 2022

The Carnival leaves town and goes on the road, the M1 specifically, with its first stop - Cranbourne.

 

In its new slot and with its new distance the Cup comes up as a strong one with 11 of the 15 set to run boasting a recent rating above the Cranbourne Cup-winning average from the prior decade.

Uncle Bryn and Visnari head the betting and that seems fair enough but, at prices around 4/1, neither appeal as being particlarly missed by the market. 

The top two, Callsign Mav and Just Folk, have some chunky pieces of spring form in the book and there was a lot of merit to Buffalo River's effort off the front end in a high-rating Crystal Mile just to start. 

The race runs deep, and that could also be said of the Pendant for the mares but there we do find what could be a little wrinkle in the betting with Cardigan Queen fancied to take her share of stopping as she steps out in the role of 'fresh horse on the scene.' 

Stablemate She's All Class heads the early betting, and her best ratings are a touch ahead of Cardigan Queen, but she has been hit-and-miss and she was outpointed by Adele Amour in a slow race at Flemington last time and Fortunate Kiss shaped as though close to a match for her the run prior. 

Fortunate Kiss has raced well without luck or results all spring and that is where Cardigan Queen enters. It was Cardigan Queen who had no luck and got no result when Fortunate Kiss stole the prize by the thinnest of margins back on Australian Cup Day. CQ looked the better horse which is the way the betting had expected things to making them 7/4 v 8/1. That equates to better than 75/25 in favour of CQ. Early prices here go 9/2 v 13/2. Less than 60/40 in favour of CQ despite a return run that said, despite having little hope the way things transpired, that she had come back better than ever. 

Things can and will transpire against Cardigan Queen on occasion if a low-percentage racing pattern is persisted with, but she's good enough to make the most of it when things go well and there seems enough edge in the price to take the chance on that happening here. 

For an each-way play we are going burgling. Absolute filth, chasing the third pick in a field of eight where two stand out at the top of betting. 

Those two are Port Phillip and Kissinger, split by little at Caulfield and the former has continued his terrific spring form with an even better effort at Bendigo. 

But the grubby each-way play is Nobel Heights, through the same Bendigo Cup where he tired late but fitter now and looking to get a cheap enough time of things on speed. 

He won third -up last prep off a similar set-up and his ratings profile was similar again in the autumn when he improved off what was again a near identical second-up run to prove a solid player in Group races over in Adelaide. 

His peak there doesn't leave him with a great deal to find against the top two and a terrific chance of getting involved and with the potential to shop value-adding place odds (1/5th would if the price holds up. 

 

THE MELBOURNE MAIL 

Bet Of The Day: Cardigan Queen @ $5.50

Each Way Play: Race 3 #2 Nobel Heights @ $7.50


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