The Melbourne Mail: 2022 Caulfield Cup Day

The Caulfield Cup Carnival comes to a close with the main event - a deep handicap with no end of interesting betting angles.

The make up of the field is very similar to 12 months ago. Second, fourth, fifth and sixteenth are back with similar chances to what they held last year. That quartet made up 23.4% in early markets having accounted for 23.4% of the SP last year.

What is missing is Incentivise, switched out for an inferior model of French design. Gold Trip has just the one win to his name and has found his now-stablemate Smokin' Romans too much to handle in both the Naturalism and the Turnbull but both of those lead ups were falsely run races and threw up less than convincing results.  

It is true that Gold Trip himself has been less than convincing in those races but his record at 1 1⁄2 m is and rain-soaked ground won't worry him a bit. 

11/4 and 5/2 in the lead ups becomes the best part of 14/1 now, meaning this case hardly needs to be water tight, and the temptation to throw him up here as an each-way play is great enough to do so. 

Such is the race, a plausible sounding case could be made for many - I started by typing one out for Duais not along dissimilar lines - and the action in the betting ring should be at least as fierce as it is on the track. But we will settle for Gold Trip in the pages of the Melbourne Mail with his 1 1⁄2 m ratings and his Turnbull SP the two major points of evidence in the case.

The Caulfield Sprint carries Group Two status but it has taken far less winning than implied by that status in recent times and the 111-110 ratings that have started Generation's spring look enough to see off a scrappy lot who bring plenty of recent 0s to the table. 

Generation has a recent 0 of his own in the book, that one coming in the Doomben 10,000 which was run on heavy ground, and perhaps that is some concern but he has won well on easy ground in the past and his Moir run came on a card where they were hardly flying over the ground with slow times the order of the night. 

Asfoora was obviously unlucky on the undercard to that Moir at the Valley, and she had impressed up to that point, but not by doing anything that wouldn't be expected of Generation in the same spots. The other danger according to early betting is Dragonstone who has some threatening ratings and some nice names alongside his in the book but might be giving up positional advantages to Generation and seems well enough found all things considered.  



Bet Of The Day: Race 7 #2 Generation @ $4.50 

Each Way Play: Race 9 #1 Gold Trip @ $15.00 


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