Sydney Specials: Rosehill – 10th September 2022

Just two weeks into Spring and it’s hard not to get excited about Rosehill on Saturday, there looks to be plenty of betting opportunities.

It's been a while since I've been this up and about and while I know over-confidence is always dangerous, I'm still excited.

The Group 3 Ming Dynasty has a capacity field with the James Cummings trained Golden Mile the early favourite.

While no match for Kibou first he beat the rest comfortably (3L) and did so running away at the finish.

A few may want to question that form, however on ratings there is little to doubt about the performance.

Golden Mile possesses the best last start figure (weight adjusted) and did so closing fast.

He is sure to appreciate the step up to 7 f and has drawn to receive all the favours on the inside.

Lines up against a few promising types, however I thought it was easy to poke holes in them.

I'm still yet to see what the market sees in Conqueror, nice profile but nothing in the form book that suggests he deserves to be hard in the market.

Zou Tiger won well first but it was only a maiden and McDonald was given a picnic out in front – always happy to lay leaders up in grade.

Osipenko is the one I'm most wary of as he was very good behind Kibou when last seen.

Also in at Flemington but has drawn the carpark so likely stays at home.

Brosnan will be better over further and then you have Basquiat who should be better for the run, but hard to see him turning the tables on Golden Mile.

As a result the 3-1 about Golden Mile looks a great bet, I have him closer to 2-1.

The last race has the Chris Waller pair at the top of the market, though I'll be surprised if the market doesn't swing back to Waterford.

Both he and Arnold are trending the right way, though worth noting the placement of the two horses to this point.

Arnold went to the provincials to break his maiden when making light work of them at Kembla Grange.

Conversely Waterford made his Australian debut at the mid-weeks when winning very well at Warwick Farm over 1300m.

Arnold then went to the mid-weeks (Bm72) for his next start, winning with a bit in hand at Randwick over 1400m.

On the flip side Waterford went straight to Saturday grade (Bm78) off his maiden win, something you rarely see Waller do.

Only won narrowly but the sectionals tell a different story and I have to mark him ahead of Arnold.

The barrier draw also likely sees Waterford settle ahead of Arnold, which makes the latter's job even harder.

Two horses worth following and expect Waterford to come out on top.

Simon Dinopoulos' Tips:

Race 6 #5 Golden Mile @ $4.20
Race 10 #16
Waterford @ $3.50

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