Brisbane Best: Eagle Farm – 30th July 2022

Not a bad post-carnival card at Eagle Farm and the likely prospect of a good track has attracted some southern visitors.

A case in point comes up in Race 2 at 12.03pm with the Gerald Ryan/Sterling Alexiou-trained Deficit.  This three-year-old has raced four times this prep, all on wet tracks in Sydney.  The pick of those runs was two starts ago when he made considerable ground in the final stages but just missed the placings in a Bm72 over the Randwick mile when favourite. His subsequent failure on a Heavy 10 at Canterbury has prompted the stable to come north.  It is worth noting that the Ryan/Alexiou yard boasts a 21% strike rate when they travel to Eagle Farm. 

There looks to be a bit of speed here with Geostorm and Greek Star from wide gates pushing forward.  Expect the newly-crowned Brisbane premier jockey James Orman will have Deficit better than midfield and one-off the fence from gate six before scratchings and he will have plenty of time to stoke up down the long Eagle Farm straight.  That decent Sydney form should stand up and he looks the best bet on the card, with around 3.60 on offer in early markets.

Southern Stock is the interesting runner coming off a fine fifth in the Queensland Derby nine weeks ago.  He will have some residual fitness and if they run along he will be the one powering home.

We then wait until 3.42pm for Race 8 and the classy mare Dzsenifer who looks a nice each-way bet in the most open event of the day.

The Gary Duncan-trained four-year-old has raced on four occasions this campaign, three times in black-type races and once in a $500,000 Magic Millions race. Her second two runs back in the Glasshouse at the Sunshine Coast over today's trip was outstanding. After being forced to snag back to near the tail from a wide draw she unleashed in the run home and was only beaten a long neck by Le Gai Soleil.  A seven-day back-up for her next run over the mile at Doomben in the Pam O'Neill may have been over-taxing and while not disgraced she didn't threaten.

Back at her pet trip today and in a race that should offer a strong tempo the mare looks beautifully placed to play a major role and at around 6.00 early doors she is excellent value.

The top-weight Looks Like Elvis is the class runner and he will also enjoy dropping back to seven furlongs after being ridden upside-down and failing over the Flemington mile last time. His form in two runs in Melbourne prior to that was top-shelf, including a stunning first-up win over 7 f. He gives 4.5kgs to Dzsenifer but as a nine-time black-type placegetter that doesn't seem unreasonable.


BET OF THE DAY: Race 2 #10 Deficit @ $3.40

EACH WAY PLAY: Race 8 #2 Dzsenifer @ $5.50

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