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The Melbourne Mail: Pakenham - 4th December 2021

After a terrific Caulfield meeting we return to the country cups circuit with Pakenham taking centre stage in Victoria this Saturday.

 

Pakenham has a bit of a 'horses for courses' theme to it with local stables having a particularly strong record on the track. This is quickly illustrated by the Phillip Stokes yard having a strike rate of 28% on their home turf. And that comes from 162 runners; not enough to be beyond the reach of regression to the mean but enough to say that the stable are better at home than they are elsewhere. 

The Melbourne Mail is in the business of tipping horses, not stables, and so we push on from that and throw up a best bet that we pitched just a few weeks ago in Marine One.  

Marine One skipped Ballarat, and comes here a month between runs, but the case remains the same.

As we said two weeks ago: "Put simply, he chased a pace - and a horse - that he wasn't capable of chasing at Flemington. Home Affairs blew up Marine One and several other handy horses in that fast and high-quality Coolmore. Students of pace will immediately see what Marine One was up against there and that his run can be considered at least as good, or better, that a few that finished ahead of him. Back into much calmer seas he looks well worth backing around the $4 mark." 

Same horse, same price, same case. 

For an each-way play we land on one that is fairly speculative. Former Frenchman Munitions is yet to get anywhere near his French ratings, and he was $41 at Flemington first-up, but he shaped with a bit of promise there and now finds a race that looks very winnable. 

The market is headed by Ocean Beyond (fair enough) and Ranting (patchy). Both come off solid figures on the Ballarat Cup Day card and have hopes but the latter was well behind Munitions at Flemington and has been ordinary as least as often as he has been good. 

It's a bit of a raffle but the Munitions ticket looks about as likely as any other and, at each way odds, with a record in France that says he could prove a very different beast to the one we have rated in Australia, he looks a worthy gamble.  

 

THE MELBOURNE MAIL 

Bet Of The Day: Race 4 #1 Marine One @ $4.20

Each Way Play: Race 6 #4 Munitions @ $8.00

 


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