Sydney Specials: Rosehill – 27th March 2021

Slipper Day is easily one of my favourite days of the year and while we've had to wait a week looking at the fields it's been a great result.

We are currently on a Heavy 9 with (fingers crossed) the track on the improve with some suggesting we could get into the soft range.

Quite remarkable given all the rain we've had in the past few weeks.

Five Group Round 3 of Addeybb Vs Verry Elleegant, the Slipper and a new look Rosehill Guineas - what a day!

It's been over 500 days since the Big 'A' has saluted the judge, but he looks poised to run a big race at Rosehill on Saturday.

Kicking off in the Chipping Norton Stakes Avilius ran a bottler when a narrow third behind Verry Elleegant.

His best first up performance since arriving in Australia, he is clearly back in great order and finds himself in a very winnable race.

Rated 125 by Timeform, he ran a figure of 121 first a performance which if able to repeat or improve sees him as the horse to beat.

The Chris Waller trained Funstar is the early market danger, however it's hard to get her performance in the Golden Eagle out of my mind.

She was at the peak of her powers with a Waller trademark prep: off a peak performance, four weeks between runs and a trial in-between.

Sent out favourite she was given every chance by Tommy Berry but simply didn't go a yard, beaten 11.6L.

There were no reported abnormalities and Berry advised the Stewards that she did not handle the heavy track conditions and it was the principal reason for her disappointing performance.

Yes she has performed well on a heavy track in the past, but I'd be inclined to lean to what she has done most recently.

As for the Big 'A' his wet track form is elite, when racing on a Soft 6 or worse he has never ran below 120.

Drawn much better the second time around he should land in the running line and with clear air he should prove very hard to beat.

Much like the Ranvet Stakes the Rosehill Guineas got a nice boost with a few new faces including dominant last start winner Grandslam.

On paper it is a deeper race, but I feel the Annabel Neasham trained Mo'Unga is a better chance this week than last.

In the original Rosehill Guineas he drew inside in a slow race on a quagmire.

Fast forward seven days and he gets onto an improving track, drawn the middle of the line and should get a solid tempo with both Grandslam and Here To Shock taking it up.

In the Randwick Guineas Lion's Roar had an uninterrupted run down the outside while the same couldn't be said for Mo'unga who arguably should of won.

Locked away on the inside, he was forced to wait and pull to the outside before really launching late.

He was the big flashing light run and no surprise to see him installed favourite on Saturday.

Mo'Unga also brings the shortest SP out of the Guineas and looks set to turn the tables.

The middle draw looks perfect and should allow Berry to settle a touch closer and get him into the clear on straightening.

That being the case I think he just wins.

Simon Dinopoulos' Three Tips:

Race 1 #6 Isotope @ $5.00

Race 5 #3
Mo'Unga @ $3.30

Race 6 #2 Avilius @ $4.20


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